Forecaz Modeller

Forecaz helps students gain practical experience

Written July 21st, 2017 by

Nicholas Patorniti-Bradley Rasmussen-Chris Teitzel

USC lecturer Nicholas Patorniti, Sizztech Managing Director Bradley Rasmussen and Unitywater Strategic Planning Officer Chris Teitzel.

Sizztech and Unitywater have helped University of the Sunshine Coast town planning and engineering students gain practical experience by providing data, software and real-life infrastructure scenarios as part of their course work.

Students undertaking ENP336 Strategic Infrastructure Planning have been able to merge their studies with industry-specific information and solve problems using a simplified version of Unitywater’s demand forecasting models.

The software, developed by Sizztech, has been used at Unitywater for three years and models where future population and employment growth will occur, when it will occur and by how much. It helps town planners and utilities providers know what infrastructure to provide, and when.
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High density without occupancy

Written April 9th, 2015 by

High density apartmentsThe article High density housing’s biggest myth by Ross Elliott published on The Pulse, suggests many high-rise apartments recently constructed or being constructed contain numerous apartments that are vacant or not occupied, particularly in the inner city areas. We have observed this trend with high density residential properties when developing urban growth models.  This trend imposes the requirement for urban models to provide for properties in some locations not being fully occupied. In some cases this can be as low as 20% occupancy. These low percentages are normally seen in holiday areas such as the Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast.

With the apartments in these high-rise buildings, Ross suggests “many are vacant: simply locked up and not used by their owners (often overseas buyers)”. Whilst this will be true for some apartments, other apartments are being utilised for short-term accommodation. These apartments are available as serviced apartments or short-term rentals and this type of land use should be accounted for in your urban growth modelling. Read the rest of this entry »

Why flatten the cadastre

Written November 16th, 2014 by

Flatten the cadastreOne of the things you need to determine for an urban growth model is how much more development capacity is available on a property.  In some situations this can be easy to find. For example a property with a single detached house that can be demolished and replaced with multiple attached dwelling units.   The challenge comes when a property consists of common property with multiple attached dwellings or commercial units.

If you treat dwellings/units as individual properties when they are part of a larger building complex or site, there is every chance the attributes of these individual properties would not meet development density criteria that apply to that site. Thus, the model would determine no further development growth could occur at that site. In many instances these sites have further development potential.  Some examples include: an old block of units that can be demolished and replaced with a high-rise unit complex; a site that is being developed in stages over several years and is only part way through delivery of those stages.  Read the rest of this entry »

How to establish a baseline

Written July 7th, 2014 by

Baseline image

The baseline is the most important element of an urban growth model.  Actually, this statement applies to any model. The baseline establishes the reference point from which a model will forecast future growth.  Not having an accurate baseline will result in your model either over or under allocating urban growth, especially in the early projection year cohorts.

Normally your baseline can be derived from the existing land uses of cadastral land parcels within the area that is subject to the urban growth model.  You might think establishing a baseline for a large cadastral model is a very challenging task.  Actually with today’s digital geospatial tools it is relatively easy. Although it is still time-consuming.

So how do you go about creating a baseline? Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome

Written June 3rd, 2014 by

Welcome to the Sizztech blog.

Having developed the Forecaz Modeller and helped our customers use this tool to develop urban growth models, we have discovered there are very few Internet sites out there that aggregate and consolidate information on this topic.

The aim of this blog is to provide a forum where information on generating and maintaining urban growth models can be found. A very “dry” and technical subject we know. For the few of us who have this passion of developing complex models, we hope this blog and the experiences we share here will make your job just that bit easier and over time you might share or comment as well.

We will be periodically writing articles on developing and maintaining urban growth models.  We will try to make these articles generic, for those of you do not use Forecaz Modeller. Hopefully in the future you will check out our urban growth modelling tool. Sizztech is happy to give a demonstration of the modelling tool at your premises or remotely.

We will also source articles relevant to urban growth modelling and include those articles on our blog. Sometimes we will be including articles just because we find the interesting and we hope you will as well.