50,000 new dwellings along Parramatta Road

Written December 8th, 2014 by

New Parramatta Rd Urban RenewalThe NSW Government has released the Draft Parramatta Road Urban Renewal Strategy. The Government is aiming for 50,000 new dwellings and 50,000 jobs in the Parramatta Road corridor by 2050. With eight suburbs/precincts targeted for development and jobs growth.

I am always a bit sceptical about claims made by government when comes to population and employment projections. The high level assumptions these claims are based on tend to be very optimistic.  When you start to apply them on the ground there are constraints (such as easements, property frontages and network infrastructure capacity) that apply at a property level and restrict what growth will be achieved.

We often encounter this when generating urban growth models, especially when it comes to employment. Typically there is not the physical land with the necessary non-residential land uses (i.e. Retail, Commercial, and Industrial) available to produce the projected employment.

The advantage of using Forecaz Modeller is you can build an initial model based on the assumptions of the urban renewal strategy. You can refine the model by changing the zone development densities and zoning geographical areas.  Then generate a new model to determine what realistic future projections can be achieved.

I noted the strategy focused on transport infrastructure, but was silent on the other two networks required to support this growth, water supply and sewerage. I would be confident in saying these networks do not have existing capacity to sustain this growth and some major network upgrades are going to be required. The sequencing of these upgrades is going to influence what future growth can be achieved.

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About the Author:
Bradley is the founder and Managing Director of Sizztech. He is an enterprise ICT consultant with over twenty years of experience in the Information Technology industry. In the last eight years Bradley has specialised in delivering web based geo-spatial solutions that focus on supporting capital works planning and delivery. This has lead to Sizztech developing Forecaz Modeller, an automated tool that performs urban growth modelling and forecasting.

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